CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-10-01T13:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-10-01T13:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21824/-1
CME Note: Visible in the W in STEREO A COR2, partial halo W in SOHO LASCO C3. Overtakes previous narrow CME in coronagraph imagery. May be associated with large eruption from AR 13113 (N16W21), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2022-10-01T12:04Z. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS team: We can have a potential CME arrival at 2022-10-04T07:05Z. As you can see, we do have a smooth-like rotation in the Z-component of magnetic field. Also, in the same period, the ion density and temperature seem to decrease from higher levels. A potential end of this CME (flux rope) could be 2022-10-05T02:46Z. After this, you can see the components are too fluctuating (or noisy).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-10-04T07:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-04T10:56Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 671.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 730.633 Acceleration: -1.12003 Duration in seconds: 251252.85 Duration in days: 2.9080191 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -1.12 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 449.2 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 04/10/2022 Time: 10:56 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 43.08 hour(s)
Difference: -3.85 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2022-10-02T12:00Z
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